In a hard-hitting new article in the International Herald Tribune, hardline Democratic foreign policy expert Zbigniew Brzezinski has laid out in sobering and lucid detail the negative consequences that would ensue from an attack on Iran by the United States, an attack Bush, Cheney, and the other NeoCon lunatics are considering. His four key arguments:
1. In the absence of an imminent threat (with the Iranians at least several years away from having a nuclear arsenal), the attack would be a unilateral act of war. If undertaken without formal Congressional declaration, it would be unconstitutional and merit the impeachment of the president. Similarly, if undertaken without the sanction of the UN Security Council either alone by the United States or in complicity with Israel, it would stamp the perpetrator(s) as an international outlaw(s).
2. Likely Iranian reactions would significantly compound ongoing U.S. difficulties in Iraq and in Afghanistan, perhaps precipitate new violence by Hezbollah in Lebanon, and in all probability cause the United States to become bogged down in regional violence for a decade or more to come. Iran is a country of some 70 million people and a conflict with it would make the misadventure in Iraq look trivial.
3. Oil prices would climb steeply, especially if the Iranians cut their production and seek to disrupt the flow of oil from the nearby Saudi oil fields. The world economy would be severely impacted, with America blamed for it. Note that oil prices have already shot above $70 per barrel, in part because of fears of a U.S./Iran clash.
4. America would become an even more likely target of terrorism, with much of the world concluding that America's support for Israel is itself a major cause of the rise in terrorism. America would become more isolated and thus more vulnerable while prospects for an eventual regional accommodation between Israel and its neighbors would be ever more remote.
This is the voice of reason speaking here. Brzezinski has never been accused of being weak or hesistant when it came to the exercise of U.S. power. Brzezinski's arguments need to be taken seriously and his warnings need to be heeded. We've got to stop this catastrophe from happening before it's too late.
If it isn't already.