Friday, August 12, 2005

The Real Story of Our So-Called "Recovery"

From the Congressional Budget Office:

Employment falls during economic recessions and typically begins to rise shortly after economic activity starts to recover. During the recession of 2001, which according to the National Bureau of Economic Research lasted from March until November, job losses totaled about 1.6 million, or 1.2 percent of the pre-recession level of employment. That loss was roughly comparable to the average rate during previous recessions, even though the recession was mild in terms of its effect on gross domestic product (GDP). After the recession, when economic activity picked up noticeably, employment continued to decline, by an additional 1.05 million jobs over the next year and a half—prompting some commentators to characterize the period as a “jobless recovery”.

The period was also characterized by exceptionally weak growth of the labor force. During the recession, the aggregate labor force participation rate (the percentage of the adult population that is either employed or actively looking for work) fell from 67.2 percent to 66.7 percent; during the early recovery, it continued to fall, reaching 66.1 percent in the second half of 2003. In early 2005, it stood at a low of 65.8 percent. Although it is not unusual for growth of the labor force to slow during recessions, as some potential workers face limited job opportunities, both the magnitude and persistence of the decline during the past several years are unprecedented. Thus, while the unemployment rate jumped from 4.0 percent to 5.5 percent during the recession, it edged up only modestly, to 6.1 percent in the second and third quarters of 2003, even as employment continued to decline following the recession. Although the slow growth of the labor force was most likely to some degree a consequence rather than a cause of the low rate of job growth in 2002 and 2003, its continuation may have helped to re-strain job growth in 2004 and early 2005.

The period after the 1990-1991 recession also has been termed a jobless recovery, but net job losses following the 2001 recession were both deeper and more persistent than in the earlier episode.

[Emphasis added in second paragraph]

Bush and his people have said repeatedly that the tax cut giveaways to the richest people in our society would stimulate massive job growth. What do you think?

2 comments:

TangoMan said...

Good job on publicizing these finding.

If you're interested you can combine the conclusions you cite with the data I culled on the Comparative Advantage of the US. Note the sectors that produce net exports. Scary, isn't it?

From a political perspective that I gather is different than yours, there is this Paul Craig Roberts posting on the nature of job growth.

Joseph Miller said...

Interesting stuff, although I'll have to study the trade figures somewhat more carefully.