Monday, July 17, 2006

Is the U.S. Headed for Bankruptcy?

A respected American economist thinks the answer may be yes. The scary figures:
Prof. [Laurence] Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics. [Emphasis added]
Yes, the right wing lunatics on The Wall Street Journal's editorial board can bray and yap about the wonderful Bush economy, but those of us in the real world have to deal with the situation as it really is. And it's pretty damned scary.
Prepare to have your children live with you, folks. Permanently. If things go on the way they're going, your kids will never be able to afford their own place in this world.

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